Alligator Blood is yet to taste defeat. Picture: Getty Images
Alligator Blood is yet to taste defeat. Picture: Getty Images

First to last: How the Guineas will finish

THE top three in the Caulfield Guineas market are set to fight out the finish of the Group 1 mile race for three-year-olds this Saturday.

But it was a tough choice settling on the winner between Dalasan, Alligator Blood and Kubrick with no favours given from the barrier draw.

Here is how CHRIS VERNUCCIO predicts where every runner will finish from first to last.

 

1. ALLIGATOR BLOOD

Extended his unbeaten record to five after an impressive win in the Guineas Prelude. There's no ceiling yet on his level of talent.

Alligator Blood can keep his winning streak going. Picture: Getty Images
Alligator Blood can keep his winning streak going. Picture: Getty Images

2. DALASAN

Finished powerfully behind Alligator Blood in the Prelude after it took him a while to wind up. The blinkers go on but he won't get an easy run from barrier 18.

3. KUBRICK

Was no match for brilliant trio Bivouac, Yes Yes Yes and Exceedance in the Golden Rose. He finished 3½ lengths off them but the race rated incredibly high.

4. SUPER SETH

Eased back to last from the wide barrier in the Guineas and was impeded by riderless Yourdeel, but was the best closer behind Dalasan. Will get an easier run from barrier five.

5. SUBEDAR

Comes out of a different Sydney formline to Kubrick. The only time he finished out of the placings was on a heavy track. Drops back to 1600m where he's better suited.

6. GROUNDSWELL

Gallant third in the Prelude after stepping up from a maiden win in Geelong. Needs another scratching to get a run.

7. EXPRESS PASS

Veered way off the track in the Prelude to avoid jockey Jamie Kah, who had fallen off Yourdeel. That ruined his race but he kept fighting to the line.

8. SOUL PATCH

Would have won by further at Flemington in mid-week race after being held up for a run. This is a big jump in grade but will keep improving as he steps up in distance.

Soul Patch should eat up 1600m. Picture: Getty Images
Soul Patch should eat up 1600m. Picture: Getty Images

9. ROCCABASCERANA

Gave a great sight in the Prelude after controlling the speed but faces a bigger test at 1600m to hold off his more fancied rivals.

10. YOURDEEL

Unseated jockey Jamie Kah in the Prelude last start after clipping heels with another runner. A dual Group 1 winner in New Zealand but has been unwanted in betting here.

11. ERIC THE EEL

Mighty first-up run but this a much harder than a BM70 at Doomben. Did get within three lengths of Kubrick in the Group 1 JJ Atkins during the Brisbane winter.

12. THE HOLY ONE

Held off the chasing pack to win the Stutt Stakes at the Valley but the overall time and closing sectionals were poor.

The Holy One won a moderate Stutt Stakes at the Valley. Picture: AAP
The Holy One won a moderate Stutt Stakes at the Valley. Picture: AAP

13. VEGAS KNIGHT

Runner-up behind The Holy One in the Stutt. Doubtful the winner comes out of that race.

14. CONQUEROR

Another who comes into the race from the Stutt Stakes.

15. SKIDDAW

The form out of his Caulfield win hasn't stood up.

16. STAND TO ATTENTION

Sound effort behind Soul Patch at Flemington but unlikely to beating that horse.

17. EXETER

Struggled to keep up in the Prelude.

18. SERENGETI

Third emergency. It would be a big shock if he breaks his maiden here.

 

$2 million CAULFIELD GUINEAS (1600m, 3YO)

Race 8, Saturday 4.30pm

1 YOURDEEL (9) 56.5kg $51

2 DALASAN (18) 56.5kg $3.20

3 ALLIGATOR BLOOD (13) 56.5kg $4.80

4 KUBRICK (17) 56.5kg $8.50

5 SUPER SETH (5) 56.5kg $12

6 THE HOLY ONE (4) 56.5kg $21

7 SUBEDAR (7) 56.5kg $13

8 SKIDDAW (6) 56.5kg $34

9 CREATOR scratched

10 ROCCABASCERANA (1) 56.5kg $14

11 STAND TO ATTENTION (3) 56.5kg $61

12 CONQUEROR (2) 56.5kg $26

13 VEGAS KNIGHT (10) 56.5kg $26

14 ERIC THE EEL (16) 56.5kg $41

15 SOUL PATCH (14) 56.5kg $16

16 EXPRESS PASS (8) 56.5kg $19

17 EXETER (15) 56.5kg $101

18e GROUNDSWELL (12) 56.5kg $14

19e SERENGETI (11) 56.5kg $51

Market: TAB Fixed Odds

 

THE FACTORS

TRACK: Good 4

RAIL: True

WEATHER: 19C

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